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Company

BIGBEARAI HOLDINGS INC

Ticker
BBAI
Sector
Technology
Industry
Information Technology Services
Report date
January 29, 2026
Valye AI Score

100

Very high visibility
Valye AI Visibility Research Score

Very high visibility

Visibility score reflects the breadth and consistency of available disclosure across SEC filings, recent public reporting, and baseline business context (research-only; not investment advice).

100
Recent developments

Scenarios for BBAI

Recent developments summary

Recent developments include acquisition of AI cargo scanning technology assets, reporting of Q4 losses with revenue below estimates, ongoing optimism about financial outlook, and strategic partnerships enhancing market presence.

Recent developments:
  • BigBear.ai acquired technology assets of an AI cargo scanning startup, expanding its AI capabilities [N2].
  • The company reported a Q4 loss and revenue below estimates, indicating operational challenges [N3].
  • Despite recent losses, management remains optimistic about the company’s financial outlook [N4].
  • BigBear.ai is building a FedRAMP-first GenAI advantage, focusing on secure AI solutions for government clients [N8].
  • Strategic partnerships, including with the Kraft Group and the New England Patriots, aim to enhance brand visibility and commercial opportunities [N6].
  • The company resolved $125 million in convertible debt, improving its capital structure [N6].
  • Stock price has registered a larger decline than the overall market recently, reflecting investor concerns [N1].
Overview

BigBear.ai Holdings Inc is a technology company specializing in artificial intelligence and information technology services. The company develops AI-driven solutions with applications in defense, intelligence, and commercial sectors. It has a focus on secure cloud-based AI platforms, including compliance with FedRAMP standards, which supports government and regulated industry clients. The company has recently expanded its technology portfolio through acquisitions and has formed strategic partnerships to enhance its market reach and product offerings.

Executive summary

What this means

Financial figures (if any) are summarized from the latest available SEC filings and are provided for informational purposes only — not financial advice. BigBear.ai Holdings Inc operates in the technology sector focusing on AI and information technology services. The company reported $456.58 million in cash and cash equivalents and a strong liquidity position as of September 30, 2025, with a current ratio of 3.13. Recent news highlights include acquisition of AI cargo scanning technology assets, Q4 losses with revenue below estimates, and strategic partnerships enhancing its market presence. The company is also noted for its FedRAMP-first GenAI capabilities, indicating a focus on secure government cloud solutions.

Scenarios for BBAI

Bull case model:

BigBear.ai's acquisition of AI cargo scanning technology and its FedRAMP-first GenAI positioning suggest a strengthening of its product offerings and competitive differentiation in secure AI solutions. Strategic partnerships, such as with the Kraft Group and the New England Patriots, may increase brand visibility and open new commercial opportunities. The company's liquidity position and resolution of convertible debt improve financial flexibility to support growth initiatives.

Bear case model:

The company reported a Q4 loss and revenue below estimates, indicating challenges in scaling revenue or managing costs. Stock price declines relative to the market reflect investor concerns. The AI technology sector is competitive and rapidly evolving, which may pressure BigBear.ai to continuously innovate and invest. Dependence on government contracts and regulatory compliance introduces execution risks. Financial performance volatility and market acceptance of new products remain key risks.

Moat:

BigBear.ai's moat is anchored in its specialized AI technology tailored for government and defense sectors, including FedRAMP-compliant cloud solutions that meet stringent security requirements. Its strategic acquisitions and partnerships enhance its technological capabilities and market access. The company's focus on niche AI applications and compliance standards creates barriers to entry for competitors lacking similar certifications and domain expertise.

Risks overview
Risks summary
The primary risks for BigBear.ai include financial performance volatility, competitive pressures in the AI sector, and the challenges of maintaining regulatory compliance and executing strategic initiatives.
Risks details:

• Financial Performance Volatility: Recent quarterly losses and revenue shortfalls highlight risks in achieving consistent profitability and revenue growth.
• Competitive Market: The AI and information technology services sector is highly competitive with rapid innovation, requiring continuous investment and adaptation.
• Regulatory and Compliance Risks: Maintaining FedRAMP compliance and other regulatory standards is critical for government contracts and involves ongoing operational challenges.
• Execution Risks: Integration of acquisitions and realization of strategic partnerships benefits depend on effective execution and market acceptance.

LLM visibility overview
LLM Visibility known facts
  • BigBear.ai Holdings Inc operates in the Technology sector, specifically in Information Technology Services.
  • The company reported cash and cash equivalents of $456.58 million as of September 30, 2025, according to its 10-Q filing [S2].
  • Current assets were $619.76 million and current liabilities were $197.92 million as of September 30, 2025, yielding a current ratio of 3.13 and a cash ratio of 2.31 [S2].
  • Net income for the quarter ended September 30, 2025, was $2.52 million [S2].
  • Basic earnings per share for the same period were $0.01, while diluted EPS was -$0.03 [S2].
  • The company acquired technology assets of an AI cargo scanning startup as reported on January 29, 2026 [N2].
  • BigBear.ai reported a Q4 loss and revenue below estimates as of January 29, 2026 [N3].
  • There is ongoing optimism about the company’s financial outlook despite recent losses [N4].
  • The company is noted for building a FedRAMP-first GenAI advantage, indicating a focus on government cloud security compliance [N8].
  • BigBear.ai has engaged in partnerships such as with the Kraft Group and the New England Patriots, indicating marketing and strategic alliance efforts [N6].
  • There is active analyst coverage and investor interest in the company as a small-cap AI stock [N6][N7].
  • The company has resolved $125 million in convertible debt, improving its capital structure [N6].
  • Recent stock price movements include a notable decline relative to the market [N1].

FINAL FORECAST FOR BBAI

Final take one line
BigBear.ai Holdings Inc exhibits very high visibility with detailed financial disclosures, active strategic developments, and significant market and operational challenges.
Final take 12 to 24 month view

Business trends: Expansion through acquisitions and strategic partnerships, focus on secure AI solutions with FedRAMP compliance, and ongoing efforts to improve financial performance.
Execution milestones: Integration of acquired AI cargo scanning technology, realization of benefits from partnerships, and management of regulatory compliance.
Key risks: Financial performance volatility, competitive pressures in AI technology, regulatory compliance challenges, and execution risks related to acquisitions and partnerships.

Final take watchlist summary
Sources
Sources - Context summary

Generated 2026-01-29

Sources - Earning calls
Sources - Other context
Sources - SEC Filings
  • S1 | 2025-03-25 | 10-K
  • S2 | 2025-11-10 | 10-Q
Sources - News headlines
  • N1 | 2026-01-29 | Yahoo Finance | BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (BBAI) Registers a Bigger Fall Than the Market:... | https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bigbear-ai-holdings-inc-bbai-214519226.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall
  • N2 | 2026-01-29 | Yahoo Finance | Bigbear.ai Holdings (BBAI) Acquires Tech Assets of AI Cargo Scanning Startup... | https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bigbear-ai-holdings-bbai-acquires-173301128.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall
  • N3 | 2026-01-29 | Yahoo Finance | BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (BBAI) Reports Q4 Loss, Lags Revenue Estimates | https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bigbear-ai-holdings-inc-bbai-231502918.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall
  • N4 | 2026-01-29 | Yahoo Finance | Does BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (BBAI) Remain Optimistic About Its Financial... | https://finance.yahoo.com/news/does-bigbear-ai-holdings-inc-021652528.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall
  • N5 | 2026-01-29 | Yahoo Finance | BigBear.ai Holdings Inc (BBAI) Q3 2024 Earnings Report Preview: What To Look For | https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bigbear-ai-holdings-inc-bbai-121213599.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall
  • N6 | 2026-01-29 | Yahoo Finance | Rainbows and Unicorns: BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:BBAI) Analysts Just... | https://finance.yahoo.com/news/rainbows-unicorns-bigbear-ai-holdings-123855990.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall
  • N7 | 2026-01-29 | Yahoo Finance | Is BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (BBAI) the Best AI Stock to Buy Under $10? | https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bigbear-ai-holdings-inc-bbai-144002715.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall
  • N8 | 2026-01-15 | tradingview.com | Is BigBear.ai Building a FedRAMP-First GenAI Advantage? — TradingView News | https://www.tradingview.com/news/zacks:9df704276094b:0-is-bigbear-ai-building-a-fedramp-first-genai-advantage/
Important legal disclaimer

This material is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment, financial, legal or tax advice, or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security. The Valye AI Score is a model-based estimate derived from public information and is subject to change without notice. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the accuracy, completeness or fairness of the information herein. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investors should conduct their own research and consult a qualified financial adviser before making any investment decisions.

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Generated by Valye SEC Pipeline Engine

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