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Company

United States Brent Oil Fund, LP

Ticker
BNO
Sector
Industry
Report date
November 9, 2026
Valye AI Score

93

Very high visibility
Recent developments
Recent developments summary

Recent news highlights focus on OPEC+ production decisions, geopolitical tensions affecting oil prices, and the impact on oil ETFs including BNO.

Recent developments:
  • OPEC+ maintained steady output and continued 2 million barrels per day production cuts, influencing oil ETF dynamics including BNO [N1].
  • Geopolitical tensions have caused rallies in oil prices, benefiting oil ETFs such as BNO [N3].
  • Peace hopes and related geopolitical developments have introduced uncertainty about oil price trends, affecting ETF investor sentiment [N2].
  • Energy sector ETFs, including those focused on oil, have experienced surges amid market volatility and geopolitical events [N4].
  • Analyst blogs have highlighted BNO among other ETFs in the context of recent market movements and sector performance [N5].
  • Certain ETF areas, including energy-related funds, have nearly doubled in value during the first nine months of 2026, reflecting strong investor interest [N6].
  • Inverse ETFs have been noted as tools to play global bond selloffs, indicating broader market strategies impacting ETF flows [N7].
  • Economic isolation scenarios for Iran have been discussed as factors influencing ETF gains and losses, relevant to BNO's geopolitical risk exposure [N8].
Overview

United States Brent Oil Fund, LP is an exchange-traded commodity fund designed to track the price of Brent crude oil primarily through investments in Brent crude oil futures contracts traded on ICE Futures Europe and NYMEX. The fund manages regulatory constraints such as accountability levels and position limits by rolling futures contracts before expiration. BNO calculates its NAV daily based on settlement prices and has an unlimited number of shares authorized for issuance. The fund's performance is influenced by fluctuations in Brent crude oil prices, which are affected by geopolitical conflicts, natural disasters, inflation, and interest rate changes. BNO holds cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments to manage liquidity and operational needs.

Executive summary

United States Brent Oil Fund, LP (BNO) is an exchange-traded fund that primarily invests in Brent crude oil futures contracts and related instruments to track Brent crude oil prices. The fund operates under regulatory frameworks imposing accountability levels and position limits on futures contracts, which it manages through rolling contracts before expiration. As of September 30, 2026, BNO held substantial cash and short-term investments totaling over $815 million and reported net income of $239 million for the first nine months of 2026. The fund's NAV and returns are sensitive to Brent crude oil price volatility driven by geopolitical events, market conditions, and regulatory factors. Recent news coverage emphasizes ongoing geopolitical tensions and OPEC+ production decisions impacting oil prices and ETFs like BNO. Financial figures (if any) are summarized from the latest available SEC filings and are provided for informational purposes only — not financial advice.

Scenarios for BNO

Bull case model:

BNO offers investors a transparent and regulated vehicle to gain exposure to Brent crude oil prices through futures contracts. Its ability to manage position limits and roll contracts systematically supports tracking of the benchmark price. The fund benefits from established market infrastructure, including major authorized participants and compliance with derivatives regulations. Recent geopolitical tensions and OPEC+ production decisions have heightened interest in oil ETFs, potentially increasing trading volumes and investor engagement.

Bear case model:

BNO faces risks from volatility in Brent crude oil prices driven by geopolitical conflicts, natural disasters, and macroeconomic factors such as inflation and interest rate changes. Regulatory constraints like accountability levels and position limits may force the fund to reduce futures positions, causing tracking errors relative to Brent crude oil prices. Market disruptions or changes in derivatives regulations could impact trading and liquidity. The fund's performance is also sensitive to fluctuations in income from cash and short-term investments due to changing interest rates.

Moat:

BNO's moat lies in its specialized structure as an exchange-traded fund focused on Brent crude oil futures, providing investors with direct exposure to Brent crude oil price movements without the complexities of futures trading. Its regulatory compliance with position limits and accountability levels, combined with established relationships with major authorized participants, supports liquidity and market access. The fund's daily NAV calculation and transparent investment strategy contribute to investor confidence and market efficiency.

Risks overview
Risks summary
The primary risks for BNO stem from Brent crude oil price volatility driven by geopolitical and macroeconomic factors, combined with regulatory constraints on futures positions that may cause tracking errors.
Risks details:

• Geopolitical and Market Volatility: Conflicts, sanctions, trade barriers, and natural disasters can cause significant volatility in Brent crude oil prices and the value of BNO's investments, potentially leading to substantial losses.
• Regulatory Constraints: Accountability levels and position limits imposed by futures exchanges may require BNO to reduce futures positions, causing tracking errors and impacting investment performance.
• Interest Rate and Inflation Risks: Changes in interest rates affect the value of BNO's fixed income investments and income earned, while inflation can erode the present value of assets held by the fund.
• Derivatives and Margin Requirements: Compliance with margin rules and clearing obligations for swaps and futures may increase operational complexity and costs.
• Liquidity and Market Access: Dependence on authorized participants and market infrastructure for share creation and redemption may affect liquidity and pricing efficiency.

FINAL FORECAST FOR BNO

Final take one line
BNO is a well-documented Brent crude oil futures ETF with high transparency, influenced by geopolitical and market factors affecting oil prices and subject to regulatory constraints on futures positions.
Final take 12 to 24 month view

Business trends: Continued geopolitical tensions and OPEC+ production policies drive Brent crude oil price volatility impacting BNO's market dynamics.
Execution milestones: Ongoing compliance with futures position limits and regulatory requirements; maintaining liquidity through authorized participants and rolling futures contracts.
Key risks: Price volatility from geopolitical and macroeconomic factors, regulatory constraints causing tracking errors, and interest rate/inflation impacts on fund assets.

Valye AI Visibility Research Score

Very high visibility

Visibility score reflects the breadth and consistency of available disclosure across SEC filings, recent public reporting, and baseline business context (research-only; not investment advice).

93
LLM visibility overview
LLM Visibility known facts
  • United States Brent Oil Fund, LP (BNO) is an exchange-traded fund that invests primarily in Brent crude oil futures contracts and other crude oil-related investments to track the price of Brent crude oil [S1].
  • BNO invests in futures contracts traded on ICE Futures Europe and NYMEX, subject to accountability levels and position limits imposed by these exchanges [S1].
  • As of December 31, 2025, BNO held 1,651 futures contracts on ICE Futures Europe and none on NYMEX, and did not exceed any position limits or accountability levels [S1].
  • BNO's investment strategy involves rolling futures contracts from the near month to the next month starting two weeks before expiration to avoid position limits [S1].
  • BNO is subject to U.S. and non-U.S. derivatives regulations, including margin requirements and clearing obligations for swaps, but does not have material swaps exposure [S1].
  • The fund's net asset value (NAV) is calculated daily based on settlement prices from ICE Futures and other exchanges [S1].
  • BNO had 3,550,000 shares outstanding as of December 31, 2025, with an unlimited number of shares authorized for issuance [S1].
  • Authorized participants include major financial institutions such as ABN AMRO Clearing USA LLC, Citadel Securities LLC, Goldman Sachs & Co., JP Morgan Securities Inc., Jane Street Capital LLC, Merrill Lynch Professional Clearing Corp., Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC, RBC Capital Markets LLC, and Virtu Americas LLC [S1].
  • For the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025, BNO's per share NAV decreased by approximately 6.14% due primarily to lower Brent crude oil prices and related futures contract values [S1].
  • BNO's average daily total net assets decreased from approximately $146.5 million in 2024 to $97.2 million in 2025 [S1].
  • Dividend and interest income earned on Treasuries and cash was $3.89 million in 2025, down from $7.23 million in 2024, reflecting lower average interest rates [S1].
  • Management fees and other expenses decreased in 2025 compared to 2024, partly due to lower professional fees and fewer futures contracts held [S1].
  • As of September 30, 2026, BNO held $290.99 million in cash and equivalents and $524.42 million in short-term investments [S2].
  • Net income for the nine months ended September 30, 2026, was $239.08 million [S2].
  • BNO's investment returns and NAV are influenced by market conditions including geopolitical conflicts, natural disasters, public health disruptions, inflation, and interest rate changes, which can cause volatility in Brent crude oil prices and the value of BNO's investments [S1].
  • BNO may face tracking error risks if required to reduce futures positions due to exchange accountability levels or position limits [S1].
  • Recent news highlights ongoing geopolitical tensions, OPEC+ production decisions, and market dynamics affecting oil prices and oil ETFs including BNO [N1][N2][N3][N4][N5][N6][N7][N8].
Sources
Sources - Context summary

Generated 2026-11-09

Sources - Earning calls
Sources - Other context
Sources - SEC Filings
  • S1 | 2026-02-27 | 10-K
  • S2 | 2026-11-06 | 10-Q
Sources - News headlines
  • N1 | 2026-11-03 | www.nasdaq.com | OPEC+ Holds Output Steady, Maintains 2M BPD Cuts: ETFs in Focus | https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/opec-holds-output-steady-maintains-2m-bpd-cuts-etfs-focus
  • N2 | 2026-10-30 | www.nasdaq.com | Will Oil Prices Slump on Peace Hopes? ETFs in Focus | https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/will-oil-prices-slump-peace-hopes-etfs-focus
  • N3 | 2026-10-22 | www.nasdaq.com | Oil ETFs to Benefit as Oil Prices Rally Due to Geopolitical Tensions | https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/oil-etfs-benefit-oil-prices-rally-due-geopolitical-tensions
  • N4 | 2026-10-20 | www.nasdaq.com | Energy ETFs: How to Play the Sector's Surge | https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/energy-etfs-how-play-sectors-surge
  • N5 | 2026-09-25 | www.nasdaq.com | The Zacks Analyst Blog Highlights CHAT, BWET, BNO, AIS, EWY and FTXL | https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/zacks-analyst-blog-highlights-chat-bwet-bno-ais-ewy-and-ftxl
  • N6 | 2026-09-24 | www.nasdaq.com | 5 ETF Areas That Have Nearly Doubled in First Nine Months of 2026 | https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/5-etf-areas-have-nearly-doubled-first-nine-months-2026
  • N7 | 2026-09-03 | www.nasdaq.com | 3 Inverse ETFs to Play Global Bond Selloffs | https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/3-inverse-etfs-play-global-bond-selloffs
  • N8 | 2026-08-14 | www.nasdaq.com | 'Economic Isolation' for Iran? ETFs to Gain/Lose | https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/economic-isolation-iran-etfs-gain-lose
Important legal disclaimer

This material is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment, financial, legal or tax advice, or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security. The Valye AI Score is a model-based estimate derived from public information and is subject to change without notice. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the accuracy, completeness or fairness of the information herein. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investors should conduct their own research and consult a qualified financial adviser before making any investment decisions.

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