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Company

MOSAIC CO

Ticker
MOS
Sector
Industry
Report date
November 4, 2026
Valye AI Score

97

Very high visibility
Recent developments
Recent developments summary

Recent news highlights Mosaic's Q3 2026 financial results showing a loss driven by higher costs and lower volumes, despite revenue exceeding estimates. The company has faced challenges from input cost inflation and supply chain disruptions, leading to withdrawn production guidance and leadership changes.

Recent developments:
  • Mosaic reported a Q3 2026 net loss with revenue surpassing estimates, impacted by higher input costs and lower sales volumes [N1][N3][N4].
  • The company withdrew its phosphate production guidance for 2026 following a Q1 loss and elevated input costs [N1].
  • Mosaic's executive VP of operations retired in Q2 2026, indicating leadership transition [N7].
  • Earnings previews prior to Q3 2026 highlighted expectations of declining earnings due to cost pressures and volume challenges [N5][N6].
  • Mosaic's shares crossed a 4% yield mark in late 2026, reflecting dividend considerations amid earnings volatility [N7].
Overview

Mosaic Co operates in the fertilizer industry, producing phosphate and potash crop nutrients. The company is publicly traded on the NYSE under the ticker MOS. Its business model is sensitive to the pricing and availability of key raw materials such as natural gas, ammonia, sulfur, and energy, which are essential for fertilizer production. Geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions have impacted input costs and availability. Mosaic reported Q3 2026 revenue of approximately $3.1 billion but incurred a net loss of $72.1 million, reflecting challenges from higher costs and lower sales volumes. The company maintains liquidity with a current ratio of 1.5 as of September 30, 2026. Recent leadership changes include the retirement of the executive VP of operations. Mosaic has active equity compensation plans with shares issuable upon exercise and available for future issuance.

Executive summary

Mosaic Co is a fertilizer and crop nutrient producer with publicly available detailed SEC filings and extensive recent news coverage. The company reported Q3 2026 revenue of $3.1 billion and a net loss of $72.1 million, with EPS of -$0.23. Liquidity ratios as of September 30, 2026, show a current ratio of 1.5 and cash of $272.6 million. Recent earnings were affected by higher input costs and lower volumes amid geopolitical and supply chain challenges. Leadership changes occurred with the retirement of the executive VP of operations. Financial figures (if any) are summarized from the latest available SEC filings and are provided for informational purposes only — not financial advice.

Scenarios for MOS

Bull case model:

Mosaic benefits from its scale in fertilizer production and integrated operations, which can provide cost efficiencies and supply reliability. The company's liquidity position and equity compensation plans support operational stability and talent retention. Despite recent losses, Mosaic's revenue generation capacity and market presence in essential agricultural inputs underpin its business continuity. The company’s responsiveness to geopolitical and supply chain challenges is a key factor in maintaining its market position.

Bear case model:

Mosaic faces risks from volatile input costs, including natural gas, ammonia, sulfur, and energy, which have materially impacted recent earnings. Geopolitical tensions and disruptions in critical shipping routes add uncertainty to supply availability and cost structures. The commodity nature of its products limits pricing power, potentially compressing margins if input costs rise without corresponding price increases. Leadership changes and withdrawn production guidance highlight operational challenges. These factors could adversely affect financial performance and cash flows.

Moat:

Mosaic's moat is derived from its integrated fertilizer production capabilities, including phosphate and potash mining and processing, which require significant capital investment and regulatory compliance. The company's scale and established supply chains provide competitive advantages in sourcing raw materials and distributing products globally. However, the commodity nature of its products exposes it to price volatility and input cost fluctuations, which can impact profitability. Mosaic's ability to manage input cost volatility and maintain operational efficiency contributes to its competitive positioning.

Risks overview
Risks summary
The most significant risks for Mosaic stem from volatile input costs and geopolitical disruptions that affect supply availability and pricing, combined with the inherent challenges of operating in a commodity-driven market with limited pricing power.
Risks details:

• Input Cost Volatility: Mosaic's profitability is sensitive to fluctuations in prices and availability of key inputs such as natural gas, ammonia, sulfur, and energy. Significant increases in these costs without the ability to pass them on to customers could materially impact results.
• Geopolitical and Supply Chain Disruptions: Ongoing conflicts and tensions, including the Russia-Ukraine war and instability in the Strait of Hormuz, have disrupted supply chains and increased costs for critical raw materials, posing risks to operational continuity and cost management.
• Commodity Price Exposure: As a producer of commodity fertilizers, Mosaic faces limited pricing power, making it vulnerable to market price fluctuations that can compress margins and affect earnings.
• Operational and Leadership Changes: Recent retirement of key executives and withdrawal of production guidance indicate potential operational challenges that could affect execution and strategic direction.

FINAL FORECAST FOR MOS

Final take one line
Mosaic Co exhibits very high visibility with detailed SEC filings and extensive recent news coverage highlighting operational challenges from input cost volatility and geopolitical disruptions.
Final take 12 to 24 month view

Business trends: Mosaic faces ongoing volatility in input costs and supply chain disruptions impacting fertilizer production and profitability.
Execution milestones: Monitoring operational adjustments post leadership changes and responses to withdrawn production guidance.
Key risks: Exposure to commodity price fluctuations, geopolitical tensions affecting raw material availability, and operational execution risks.

Valye AI Visibility Research Score

Very high visibility

Visibility score reflects the breadth and consistency of available disclosure across SEC filings, recent public reporting, and baseline business context (research-only; not investment advice).

97
LLM visibility overview
LLM Visibility known facts
  • Mosaic Co is a publicly traded company on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker MOS [S1].
  • As of February 20, 2026, Mosaic had 317,505,258 shares outstanding and 1,125 holders of record [S1].
  • The company operates in the fertilizer and crop nutrient industry, producing products such as phosphate and potash fertilizers [S1].
  • Mosaic's business is sensitive to the pricing and availability of key inputs including natural gas, ammonia, sulfur, and energy, which are critical for production of its finished goods [Q0].
  • Geopolitical factors such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and tensions involving Iran have impacted global supply chains and input costs relevant to Mosaic's operations [Q0].
  • Mosaic reported Q3 2026 revenue of approximately $3.1 billion and a net loss of $72.1 million for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 [S2].
  • The company reported basic and diluted earnings per share of -$0.23 for Q3 2026 [S2].
  • Liquidity ratios as of September 30, 2026 include a current ratio of 1.5 and a cash ratio of 0.08, with cash and equivalents totaling $272.6 million [S2].
  • Mosaic did not repurchase any shares during Q3 2026 under its Board approved stock repurchase programs [Q0].
  • Recent news reports indicate Mosaic's Q3 2026 earnings were negatively impacted by higher costs and lower volumes, resulting in a loss despite topping revenue estimates [N1][N3][N4].
  • The company withdrew phosphate production guidance for 2026 following a Q1 loss and higher input costs [N1].
  • Mosaic's executive VP of operations retired in Q2 2026, indicating some leadership changes [N7].
  • Mosaic has equity compensation plans with approximately 4.7 million shares issuable upon exercise of outstanding options and 13 million shares available for future issuance [S1].
Sources
Sources - Context summary

Generated 2026-11-04

Sources - Earning calls
Sources - Other context
Sources - SEC Filings
  • S1 | 2026-03-17 | 10-K/A
  • S2 | 2026-11-04 | 10-Q
Sources - News headlines
  • N1 | 2026-11-04 | www.nasdaq.com | MOS Q3 Earnings Miss Estimates on Higher Costs, Lower Volumes | https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/mos-q3-earnings-miss-estimates-higher-costs-lower-volumes
  • N2 | 2026-11-03 | www.nasdaq.com | Mosaic (MOS) Q3 Earnings: Taking a Look at Key Metrics Versus Estimates | https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/mosaic-mos-q3-earnings-taking-look-key-metrics-versus-estimates
  • N3 | 2026-11-03 | www.nasdaq.com | Mosaic (MOS) Reports Q3 Loss, Tops Revenue Estimates | https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/mosaic-mos-reports-q3-loss-tops-revenue-estimates
  • N4 | 2026-11-03 | www.nasdaq.com | Mosaic Swings To Q3 Loss | https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/mosaic-swings-q3-loss
  • N5 | 2026-10-28 | www.nasdaq.com | Earnings Preview: Nutrien (NTR) Q3 Earnings Expected to Decline | https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/earnings-preview-nutrien-ntr-q3-earnings-expected-decline
  • N6 | 2026-10-27 | www.nasdaq.com | Earnings Preview: Mosaic (MOS) Q3 Earnings Expected to Decline | https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/earnings-preview-mosaic-mos-q3-earnings-expected-decline
  • N7 | 2026-10-23 | www.nasdaq.com | Daily Dividend Report: APD,ZWS,SCHW,MOS,JBL,SJM | https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/daily-dividend-report-apdzwsschwmosjblsjm
  • N8 | 2026-10-08 | www.nasdaq.com | Can CF Industries' Strong Cash Flow Drive More Growth and Returns? | https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/can-cf-industries-strong-cash-flow-drive-more-growth-and-returns
Important legal disclaimer

This material is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment, financial, legal or tax advice, or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security. The Valye AI Score is a model-based estimate derived from public information and is subject to change without notice. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the accuracy, completeness or fairness of the information herein. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investors should conduct their own research and consult a qualified financial adviser before making any investment decisions.

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