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Company

Microsoft Corporation

Ticker
MSFT
Sector
Technology
Industry
Software - Infrastructure
Report date
January 29, 2026
Valye AI Score

100

Very high visibility
Valye AI Visibility Research Score

Very high visibility

Visibility score reflects the breadth and consistency of available disclosure across SEC filings, recent public reporting, and baseline business context (research-only; not investment advice).

100
Recent developments

Scenarios for MSFT

Recent developments summary

Recent developments highlight Microsoft's record cloud revenue growth, strong earnings per share, and strategic AI investments including unveiling a new AI chip. However, the company also faces market concerns over slowing cloud growth and elevated spending on AI hardware.

Recent developments:
  • Microsoft reported record cloud revenue with Microsoft Cloud revenue increasing 26% to $51.5 billion in Q2 2026 [N4].
  • Microsoft unveiled the Maia 200 AI chip aimed at reducing reliance on Nvidia GPUs and is expanding data center capacity ahead of earnings [N3][N6].
  • Despite strong results and value growth, Microsoft shares slid amid concerns over slowing cloud growth and margin guidance [N1][N2][N5].
  • Microsoft and Meta earnings reports emphasized the focus on payoffs from AI spending [N7].
  • Broadcom is positioned to dominate the custom AI chip market with a 60% share by 2027, indicating competitive dynamics in AI hardware [N8].
Overview

Microsoft Corporation operates globally in the technology sector, providing software, cloud services, and devices. Its product portfolio includes Windows, Office, Azure cloud services, Xbox gaming, LinkedIn, and Dynamics 365 business applications. The company generates revenue through cloud solutions, software licensing, online advertising, and device sales. Microsoft has a strategic partnership with OpenAI, leveraging AI technologies across its offerings. The business environment is highly competitive and rapidly evolving, with ongoing investments in AI infrastructure and data centers to meet customer demand. Microsoft also faces operational risks related to supply chain constraints, component availability, and talent retention.

Executive summary

What this means

Financial figures (if any) are summarized from the latest available SEC filings and are provided for informational purposes only — not financial advice. Microsoft Corporation is a leading technology company focused on software, cloud services, and devices. The company reported strong growth in cloud revenue and key software segments in its second quarter of fiscal 2026, alongside significant investments in AI infrastructure and chip development. Microsoft maintains a strategic partnership with OpenAI, integrating advanced AI capabilities into its products. The company faces industry competition, supply chain risks, and margin pressures from increased spending on AI and cloud infrastructure.

Scenarios for MSFT

Bull case model:

Microsoft's extensive cloud platform and AI integration position it to capitalize on enterprise digital transformation and AI adoption trends. The company's investments in proprietary AI chips and data center expansion aim to reduce reliance on third-party suppliers and improve performance. Growth in Microsoft 365, LinkedIn, and Dynamics 365 reflects diversified revenue streams. The strategic partnership with OpenAI provides access to advanced AI technology, enhancing product innovation and customer value.

Bear case model:

Microsoft faces risks from slowing growth in cloud services and margin pressures due to record spending on AI hardware and infrastructure. Supply chain disruptions, especially for critical components with limited suppliers, could impact device manufacturing and delivery. Intense competition in cloud, software, and advertising markets may pressure pricing and market share. Regulatory and geopolitical factors, including currency fluctuations and trade restrictions, add uncertainty. The complexity of integrating AI technologies and maintaining software quality could affect customer satisfaction and operational efficiency.

Moat:

Microsoft's moat is built on its broad and integrated technology ecosystem, including dominant cloud infrastructure (Azure), widely used productivity software (Office, Microsoft 365), and a large installed base of enterprise and consumer customers. Its strategic partnership with OpenAI enhances its AI capabilities, differentiating its offerings. The company's scale, extensive intellectual property, and global reach create high switching costs and network effects, supporting competitive advantages in cloud services, software platforms, and device ecosystems.

Risks overview
Risks summary
The most significant risks include competitive pressures in a dynamic industry, supply chain vulnerabilities, and margin impacts from increased AI-related spending.
Risks details:

• Competitive Pressure: The technology and cloud markets are highly competitive with rapid innovation cycles. Competitors may develop superior products or pricing strategies that impact Microsoft's market position.
• Supply Chain Disruptions: Dependence on third-party manufacturers and limited suppliers for certain components could lead to production delays and increased costs if disruptions occur.
• Margin Pressure from AI Investments: Significant investments in AI infrastructure and hardware increase operating costs and may reduce operating margins.
• Talent Retention: Microsoft's success depends on attracting and retaining qualified employees in a competitive global labor market.
• Regulatory and Geopolitical Risks: Changes in trade policies, tariffs, and currency fluctuations may adversely affect revenue and expenses from international operations.

LLM visibility overview
LLM Visibility known facts
  • Microsoft Corporation operates in the technology sector, specifically in software infrastructure, headquartered in the USA.
  • The company develops software, cloud services, and devices including Windows, Office, Azure, and Xbox.
  • Microsoft generates revenue from cloud-based solutions, software licensing and support, online advertising, and device sales.
  • Microsoft Cloud revenue increased 26% to $51.5 billion in the second quarter of fiscal year 2026.
  • Microsoft 365 Commercial cloud revenue increased 17%, and Microsoft 365 Consumer cloud revenue increased 29% in the same period.
  • LinkedIn revenue increased 11%, and Dynamics 365 revenue increased 19%.
  • Azure and other cloud services revenue increased 39%.
  • Windows OEM and Devices revenue increased 1%, while Xbox content and services revenue decreased 5%.
  • Search and news advertising revenue excluding traffic acquisition costs increased 10%.
  • Commercial remaining performance obligation increased 110% to $625 billion.
  • Microsoft has a long-term strategic partnership with OpenAI, including reciprocal revenue-sharing and rights to OpenAI's intellectual property for integration into Microsoft products.
  • Microsoft unveiled the Maia 200 AI chip to reduce reliance on Nvidia GPUs and is boosting data center capacity to meet AI demand.
  • The company faces a dynamic and highly competitive industry with frequent technology and business model changes.
  • Microsoft invests heavily in cloud and AI infrastructure, increasing operating costs and potentially impacting operating margins.
  • The company depends on third-party manufacturers for devices and faces risks from supply chain disruptions, especially for components with few qualified suppliers.
  • Microsoft's success depends on attracting and retaining qualified employees globally.
  • International operations contribute significantly to revenue and expenses, with currency fluctuations impacting reported results.
  • Microsoft's revenue is seasonal, generally higher in the fourth fiscal quarter due to multi-year contract volume.
  • As of December 31, 2025, Microsoft had $24.3 billion in cash and equivalents, $180.2 billion in current assets, and $130.0 billion in current liabilities, resulting in a current ratio of 1.39 and a cash ratio of 1.12.
  • Net income for the period ending December 31, 2025, was $38.5 billion with basic EPS of $5.18 and diluted EPS of $5.16.
  • Recent news highlights include record cloud revenue, strong EPS, slowing cloud growth concerns, record AI hardware spending, and the debut of the Maia 200 AI chip.

FINAL FORECAST FOR MSFT

Final take one line
Microsoft exhibits very high visibility with detailed disclosures on its diversified technology business, strong cloud growth, AI investments, and associated risks.
Final take 12 to 24 month view

Business trends: Continued growth in cloud services and AI integration, expansion of data center infrastructure, and strategic AI partnerships shape Microsoft's evolving business landscape.
Execution milestones: Deployment of proprietary AI chips like Maia 200, scaling of cloud capacity, and integration of OpenAI technologies into products.
Key risks: Competitive pressures, supply chain constraints, margin impacts from AI spending, talent retention challenges, and geopolitical uncertainties.

Final take watchlist summary
Sources
Sources - Context summary

Generated 2026-01-29

Sources - Earning calls
Sources - Other context
Sources - SEC Filings
  • S1 | 2025-07-30 | 10-K
  • S2 | 2026-01-28 | 10-Q
Sources - News headlines
  • N1 | 2026-01-29 | Bloomberg | Microsoft Drops Amid Slowing Cloud Growth, Record Spending | https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-28/microsoft-drops-after-reporting-record-spending-on-ai-hardware
  • N2 | 2026-01-28 | cnbc.com | Microsoft stock drops 7% on slowing cloud growth, light margin guidance | https://www.cnbc.com/2026/01/28/microsoft-msft-q2-earnings-report-2026.html
  • N3 | 2026-01-27 | Bloomberg | Microsoft(MSFT) Unveils AI Chip to Cut Nvidia (NVDA) Reliance - Bloomberg | https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-26/microsoft-unveils-latest-ai-chip-to-reduce-reliance-on-nvidia
  • N4 | 2026-01-29 | Yahoo Finance | Microsoft Corp (MSFT) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Highlights: Record Cloud Revenue and Strong EPS ... | https://finance.yahoo.com/news/microsoft-corp-msft-q2-2026-050307376.html
  • N5 | 2026-01-29 | Yahoo Finance | Microsoft (MSFT) Slid Despite Delivering Strong Results and Value Growth | https://finance.yahoo.com/news/microsoft-msft-slid-despite-delivering-120941320.html
  • N6 | 2026-01-29 | Yahoo Finance | Microsoft Boosts Data Centers, Debuts Maia 200 AI Chip Before Earnings | https://finance.yahoo.com/news/microsoft-boosts-data-centers-debuts-163048462.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall
  • N7 | 2026-01-29 | mercurynews.com | Microsoft and Meta earnings put a focus on payoffs from AI spending | https://www.mercurynews.com/2026/01/28/microsoft-meta-earnings-ai-spending/
  • N8 | 2026-01-29 | Yahoo Finance | Broadcom Set To Dominate Custom AI Chip Market With 60% Share By 2027,... | https://finance.yahoo.com/news/broadcom-set-dominate-custom-ai-163116560.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall
Important legal disclaimer

This material is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment, financial, legal or tax advice, or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security. The Valye AI Score is a model-based estimate derived from public information and is subject to change without notice. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the accuracy, completeness or fairness of the information herein. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investors should conduct their own research and consult a qualified financial adviser before making any investment decisions.

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Generated by Valye SEC Pipeline Engine

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