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Company

SEAGATE TECHNOLOGY HOLDINGS PLC

Ticker
STX
Sector
Technology
Industry
Computer Hardware
Report date
February 1, 2026
Valye AI Score

100

Very high visibility
Valye AI Visibility Research Score

Very high visibility

Visibility score reflects the breadth and consistency of available disclosure across SEC filings, recent public reporting, and baseline business context (research-only; not investment advice).

100
Recent developments

Scenarios for STX

Recent developments summary

Recent developments highlight strong earnings performance, supply constraints, and robust demand driven by AI-led storage needs, with the company sold out through 2026.

Recent developments:
  • Seagate reported a significant earnings blowout, with shares climbing 17.8% following the announcement [N1].
  • The CEO stated that Seagate is sold out through 2026 due to strong demand, indicating supply constraints [N2][N3].
  • Market commentary notes that Seagate is facing shortages that cannot be met, reflecting high demand and supply challenges [N6].
  • Seagate's Q2 2026 earnings call highlighted record revenue and strong demand driven by AI applications [N7].
  • The company's stock has rallied significantly post-earnings, with market participants discussing whether to chase the rally [N5][N8].
  • Comparisons between Seagate's HDD offerings and competitors' flash storage highlight ongoing market competition and strategic positioning [N4].
Overview

Seagate Technology Holdings PLC is a technology company specializing in computer hardware, particularly hard disk drives and storage solutions. Its business is primarily focused on serving data center customers with high-capacity nearline HDDs and Edge IoT markets including consumer and client-centric products. The company operates globally with sales through distributors, retailers, and direct customers such as hyperscale data centers and cloud service providers. Seagate invests in advanced storage technologies like HAMR to increase capacity and maintain competitiveness. The company manages significant long-term debt and liquidity to support operations and growth. Recent operational focus includes adapting to AI-driven data demand and evolving market segmentation to reflect current demand drivers.

Executive summary

What this means

Financial figures (if any) are summarized from the latest available SEC filings and are provided for informational purposes only — not financial advice. Seagate Technology Holdings PLC operates in the computer hardware sector, focusing on HDD storage solutions primarily for data center and Edge IoT markets. The company reported strong fiscal year 2025 results with $9.1 billion revenue and $1.5 billion net income, and recent quarterly results show continued profitability and liquidity. Recent news highlights robust demand leading to being sold out through 2026 and supply shortages. The company faces competitive and operational risks including technological shifts, customer concentration, and supply chain challenges.

Scenarios for STX

Bull case model:

Seagate benefits from increasing global data storage demand, particularly driven by cloud computing and AI applications that require large-scale, cost-effective storage solutions. Its leadership in high-capacity HDD technology and ongoing investments in product development position it to capture growth in data center storage needs. The company's strong customer relationships and supply chain capabilities support its ability to meet demand. Recent news indicates strong sales momentum and supply constraints, reflecting robust market demand.

Bear case model:

Seagate faces risks from rapid technological changes, including the growing adoption of SSDs and alternative storage technologies that may reduce HDD market share. The company is exposed to supply chain disruptions, customer concentration risks, and pricing pressures from distributors and retailers. Its significant leverage and debt service obligations may constrain financial flexibility. Market volatility and macroeconomic uncertainties, including geopolitical tensions and trade policies, could adversely impact operations and financial results.

Moat:

Seagate's moat is anchored in its technological expertise in high-capacity HDD manufacturing, long-standing relationships with large hyperscale data center customers, and investments in advanced storage technologies such as HAMR. Its scale and manufacturing capabilities, combined with a broad distribution network and product qualification with key customers, create barriers to entry. However, the company faces competitive pressure from SSD technologies and market commoditization risks, which require continuous innovation and operational efficiency to sustain its competitive position.

Risks overview
Risks summary
Seagate's biggest risks stem from technological shifts reducing HDD demand, customer concentration, supply chain constraints, and financial leverage limiting operational flexibility.
Risks details:

• Technological and Market Competition: Rapid technological changes and competition from SSD and alternative storage technologies may reduce demand for Seagate's HDD products and impact market share.
• Customer Concentration and Qualification Risks: A significant portion of revenue depends on large hyperscale data center customers who require rigorous product qualification; loss or reduction of these customers could materially affect revenue.
• Supply Chain and Manufacturing Challenges: Shortages or delays in critical components and manufacturing complexities may disrupt production and increase costs, affecting operational results.
• Financial Leverage and Debt Obligations: Substantial long-term debt and associated interest payments may limit financial flexibility and ability to invest or respond to market changes.
• Macroeconomic and Geopolitical Uncertainties: Global economic conditions, trade policies, and geopolitical tensions may adversely affect business operations, supply chains, and financial performance.

LLM visibility overview
LLM Visibility known facts
  • Seagate Technology Holdings PLC operates in the Technology sector, specifically in Computer Hardware, focusing on data storage products including hard disk drives (HDDs) and related storage solutions.
  • The company ships high-capacity nearline HDDs primarily to cloud and enterprise customers, with a significant portion of revenue derived from data center and Edge IoT markets.
  • In fiscal year 2025, Seagate shipped 595 exabytes of HDD storage capacity, generated approximately $9.1 billion in revenue, with a gross margin of 35% and net income of $1.5 billion [S1].
  • For the quarter ended January 2, 2026, Seagate reported net income of $593 million and basic earnings per share of $2.75, with cash and cash equivalents of approximately $1.05 billion [S2].
  • Liquidity ratios as of January 2, 2026, include a current ratio of 1.12 and a cash ratio of 0.28, indicating moderate short-term liquidity [S2].
  • Seagate's business model includes sales through distributors and retailers, which account for a substantial portion of revenue but introduce volatility and price competition [S2].
  • The company faces competition from HDD and SSD manufacturers, with SSD adoption impacting the total addressable HDD market and competitive dynamics [S2].
  • Seagate's product development focuses on advanced technologies such as HAMR (Heat-Assisted Magnetic Recording) to increase HDD capacities, with ongoing investments in product innovation and manufacturing capacity [S2].
  • The company has a significant amount of long-term debt, with $5.0 billion principal outstanding as of October 3, 2025, and associated interest obligations, which may impact financial flexibility [S2].
  • Seagate's customer base includes large hyperscale data center companies and cloud service providers, which represent a significant portion of revenue and require rigorous product qualification processes [S2].
  • Recent news highlights include strong earnings performance, with the company being sold out through 2026 due to high demand, particularly driven by AI-led storage needs [N1][N2][N3][N7].
  • Market commentary notes shortages that cannot be met, reflecting supply constraints amid robust demand [N6].
  • Seagate's stock price has experienced significant rallies following earnings announcements, reflecting market response to operational results and guidance [N1][N5][N8].
  • The company has made acquisitions such as Intevac, Inc., a supplier of thin-film processing systems, to support its technology and manufacturing capabilities [S1].
  • Seagate's fiscal year 2026 will comprise 53 weeks, ending July 3, 2026, with recent changes in market segmentation to better reflect demand drivers and AI impact [S1].
  • The company faces risks including technological change, competition, customer concentration, supply chain constraints, and macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties [S2].

FINAL FORECAST FOR STX

Final take one line
Seagate exhibits high business model visibility supported by detailed SEC disclosures and extensive recent news on strong demand and supply constraints.
Final take 12 to 24 month view

Business trends: Increasing demand for high-capacity HDDs driven by cloud and AI applications, with supply constraints impacting availability.
Execution milestones: Continued product development in advanced HDD technologies like HAMR, successful integration of acquisitions, and maintaining customer qualifications.
Key risks: Technological shifts favoring SSDs, customer concentration, supply chain disruptions, and financial leverage impacting flexibility.

Final take watchlist summary
Sources
Sources - Context summary

Generated 2026-02-01

Sources - Earning calls
  • N7
Sources - Other context
Sources - SEC Filings
  • S1 | 2025-08-01 | 10-K
  • S2 | 2026-01-30 | 10-Q
Sources - News headlines
  • N1 | 2026-02-01 | Yahoo Finance | Seagate(STX) Climbs 17.8% on Earnings Blowout | https://finance.yahoo.com/news/seagate-stx-climbs-17-8-211107011.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall
  • N2 | 2026-02-01 | Yahoo Finance | SeagateIs Sold Out Through 2026, CEO Says | https://finance.yahoo.com/news/seagate-sold-2026-ceo-says-183110537.html
  • N3 | 2026-02-01 | uk.finance.yahoo.com | SeagateIs Sold Out Through 2026, CEO Says | https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/seagate-sold-2026-ceo-says-183110537.html
  • N4 | 2026-02-01 | theglobeandmail.com | STX's HDDs vs. PSTG's Flash Bet: Which Storage Play is Better? | https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/markets/stocks/STX/pressreleases/37322649/stxs-hdds-vs-pstgs-flash-bet-which-storage-play-is-better/
  • N5 | 2026-01-30 | Yahoo Finance | Should You Chase the Rally inSeagateTechnologyStock After Earnings? | https://finance.yahoo.com/news/chase-rally-seagate-technology-stock-120002021.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall
  • N6 | 2026-01-30 | Yahoo Finance | Seagate(STX) is Facing a Shortage That Can’t Be Met, Says Jim Cramer | https://finance.yahoo.com/news/seagate-stx-facing-shortage-t-174741259.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall
  • N7 | 2026-01-30 | ca.investing.com | SeagateTechnologyHoldingsPLC(STX) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Highlights: Record... | https://ca.investing.com/news/company-news/seagate-technology-holdings-plc-stx-q2-2026-earnings-call-highlights-record-revenue-and--4422385
  • N8 | 2026-01-30 | aaii.com | WhySeagateTechnologyHoldingsplc’s (STX) Stock Is Up 16.00% | https://www.aaii.com/investingideas/article/417635-why-seagate-technology-holdings-plc8217s-stx-stock-is-up-1600
Important legal disclaimer

This material is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment, financial, legal or tax advice, or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security. The Valye AI Score is a model-based estimate derived from public information and is subject to change without notice. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the accuracy, completeness or fairness of the information herein. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investors should conduct their own research and consult a qualified financial adviser before making any investment decisions.

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Generated by Valye SEC Pipeline Engine

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