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Company

United States Natural Gas Fund, LP

Ticker
UNG
Sector
Industry
Report date
November 9, 2026
Valye AI Score

100

Very high visibility
Recent developments
Recent developments summary

Recent news highlights include the introduction of November 11th options for UNG shares, significant ETF outflows, and technical price movements such as breaking above the 200-day moving average. Market conditions and geopolitical events continue to influence natural gas ETFs including UNG.

Recent developments:
  • November 11th options became available for United States Natural Gas Fund shares, providing additional trading instruments for investors [N1].
  • UNG experienced significant ETF outflows in early October 2026, reflecting shifts in investor sentiment [N2].
  • The fund's share price broke above its 200-day moving average in late September 2026, indicating a technical bullish signal [N3].
  • UNG shares were reported as very oversold in early August 2026, suggesting heightened selling pressure [N4].
  • Energy ETFs including UNG were highlighted as worth considering for long-term growth in early August 2026 [N5].
  • A global supply shock rattled LNG production, bringing focus to natural gas ETFs such as UNG in April 2026 [N6].
  • Natural gas ETFs were noted amid deepening energy crises related to geopolitical tensions in March 2026 [N7].
  • Several natural gas names including UNG were identified as watchlist candidates due to global supply shocks in March 2026 [N8].
Overview

United States Natural Gas Fund, LP is a publicly traded commodity fund focused on natural gas. It invests primarily in natural gas futures contracts traded on exchanges such as NYMEX and ICE Futures, as well as other natural gas-related investments. The fund aims to track the price movements of natural gas by holding benchmark futures contracts and rolling them forward to avoid position limits and price fluctuation limits. UNG's portfolio includes short-term U.S. Treasury obligations and cash equivalents to manage liquidity and margin requirements. The fund's shares trade on the NYSE Arca exchange under the ticker UNG and underwent a 1-for-4 reverse split in early 2024. The fund's operations and financials are subject to regulatory oversight and market risks inherent in commodity futures trading.

Executive summary

United States Natural Gas Fund, LP (UNG) is a commodity fund investing primarily in natural gas futures contracts and related instruments to track natural gas prices. Financial figures (if any) are summarized from the latest available SEC filings and are provided for informational purposes only — not financial advice. As of September 30, 2026, UNG held approximately $79 million in cash and cash equivalents and $274 million in short-term U.S. Treasury obligations. The fund reported a net loss of about $38.3 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2026. UNG's net asset value per share was $10.41 as of September 30, 2026, down from $12.20 at the end of 2025. The fund is subject to regulatory position limits and market risks including natural gas price volatility, geopolitical events, and interest rate changes.

Scenarios for UNG

Bull case model:

The fund's structure allows investors to gain exposure to natural gas price movements without direct commodity ownership. UNG's ability to roll futures contracts and manage regulatory position limits supports its tracking objective. Recent technical indicators such as breaking above the 200-day moving average suggest periods of positive market momentum. The availability of options on UNG shares provides additional trading flexibility. The fund's holdings in short-term U.S. Treasury obligations provide liquidity and income to offset expenses.

Bear case model:

UNG faces risks from natural gas price volatility, including contango and backwardation in futures markets that can cause tracking errors and losses. Regulatory position limits and accountability levels may restrict the fund's ability to fully invest in benchmark futures contracts, potentially impacting performance. Geopolitical conflicts, natural disasters, inflation, and interest rate changes can adversely affect commodity prices and the value of the fund's investments. ETF outflows and market sentiment shifts can affect liquidity and share price stability.

Moat:

UNG's moat lies in its established position as a specialized natural gas commodity fund with regulatory approvals and infrastructure to trade futures contracts on major exchanges. Its ability to manage position limits and roll futures contracts efficiently supports its tracking objective. The fund benefits from relationships with major authorized participants and market makers, facilitating liquidity and share creation/redemption. However, the fund's performance is inherently tied to the volatile natural gas market and regulatory environment, which can impact tracking accuracy and investor returns.

Risks overview
Risks summary
The primary risks for UNG stem from natural gas price volatility and regulatory position limits that may constrain investment flexibility and tracking accuracy.
Risks details:

• Commodity Price Volatility: Natural gas prices are highly volatile and influenced by supply-demand dynamics, weather, geopolitical events, and market speculation, which can cause significant fluctuations in the fund's NAV and share price.
• Regulatory Position Limits: UNG is subject to position limits and accountability levels imposed by futures exchanges and the CFTC, which may restrict its ability to hold certain futures contracts and affect tracking performance.
• Market and Liquidity Risks: The fund's liquidity depends on market conditions and authorized participants. Large ETF outflows or market disruptions could impact share liquidity and pricing.
• Interest Rate and Inflation Risks: Changes in interest rates and inflation can affect the value of the fund's cash and Treasury holdings, impacting overall returns.
• Operational and Counterparty Risks: UNG's use of futures and swaps exposes it to counterparty risk, margin requirements, and operational risks related to trading and settlement.

FINAL FORECAST FOR UNG

Final take one line
UNG is a well-documented natural gas commodity fund with clear regulatory and market exposure, facing typical commodity and regulatory risks.
Final take 12 to 24 month view

Business trends: Natural gas market volatility and geopolitical events continue to influence UNG's investment environment.
Execution milestones: Managing futures contract rolls and regulatory position limits remain critical to tracking performance.
Key risks: Price volatility, regulatory constraints, and market liquidity pose ongoing challenges for the fund.

Valye AI Visibility Research Score

Very high visibility

Visibility score reflects the breadth and consistency of available disclosure across SEC filings, recent public reporting, and baseline business context (research-only; not investment advice).

100
LLM visibility overview
LLM Visibility known facts
  • United States Natural Gas Fund, LP (UNG) is a publicly traded commodity fund listed on NYSE Arca under ticker UNG.
  • UNG invests primarily in natural gas futures contracts and other natural gas-related investments to track the price of natural gas.
  • As of September 30, 2026, UNG held approximately $274 million in short-term U.S. Treasury obligations and $79 million in cash and cash equivalents.
  • The fund had total assets of approximately $476 million and liabilities of about $6.2 million as of September 30, 2026.
  • UNG had 45,146,103 shares outstanding as of December 31, 2025, with a net asset value per share of $10.41 as of September 30, 2026.
  • UNG's investment strategy involves rolling futures contracts to avoid position limits and price fluctuation limits imposed by exchanges such as NYMEX and ICE Futures.
  • UNG is subject to regulatory position limits and accountability levels on futures contracts, which may affect its ability to invest fully in benchmark futures contracts.
  • The fund experienced a net loss of approximately $38.3 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2026.
  • UNG's net asset value per share decreased from $16.85 at the end of 2024 to $12.20 at the end of 2025, reflecting volatility in natural gas prices and market conditions.
  • UNG's shares trade close to their net asset value, with a market price of $10.37 per share as of September 30, 2026.
  • The fund is impacted by natural gas market conditions including contango and backwardation in futures prices, which affect returns and tracking.
  • UNG is exposed to risks from natural disasters, geopolitical conflicts, inflation, interest rate changes, and regulatory changes affecting derivatives and futures trading.
  • Recent news highlights include the availability of November 11th options for UNG, significant ETF outflows, and technical price movements such as breaking above the 200-day moving average.
  • UNG's authorized participants include major financial institutions such as Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and Citadel Securities.
  • The fund's management fees and other expenses are disclosed in SEC filings, with management fees around $3.1 million for the year ended 2025.
  • UNG's investment portfolio includes NYMEX Natural Gas Futures contracts and U.S. Treasury Bills with varying maturities and yields around 3.5% to 3.9%.
  • UNG's liquidity position includes cash and equivalents totaling approximately $79 million as of September 30, 2026.
  • The fund's shares underwent a 1-for-4 reverse split on January 23, 2024, adjusting share count and NAV per share accordingly.
Sources
Sources - Context summary

Generated 2026-11-09

Sources - Earning calls
Sources - Other context
Sources - SEC Filings
  • S1 | 2026-02-27 | 10-K
  • S2 | 2026-11-06 | 10-Q
Sources - News headlines
  • N1 | 2026-10-27 | www.nasdaq.com | November 11th Options Now Available For United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG) | https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/november-11th-options-now-available-united-states-natural-gas-fund-ung
  • N2 | 2026-10-02 | www.nasdaq.com | UNG, BWET: Big ETF Outflows | https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/ung-bwet-big-etf-outflows
  • N3 | 2026-09-24 | www.nasdaq.com | United States Natural Gas Fund Breaks Above 200-Day Moving Average - Bullish for UNG | https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/united-states-natural-gas-fund-breaks-above-200-day-moving-average-bullish-ung
  • N4 | 2026-08-06 | www.nasdaq.com | United States Natural Gas Fund Getting Very Oversold | https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/united-states-natural-gas-fund-getting-very-oversold
  • N5 | 2026-08-04 | www.nasdaq.com | Beyond Oil: Energy ETFs Worth Investing in for Long-Term Growth | https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/beyond-oil-energy-etfs-worth-investing-long-term-growth
  • N6 | 2026-04-28 | www.nasdaq.com | Global Supply Shock Rattles LNG Production: Natural Gas ETFs in Focus | https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/global-supply-shock-rattles-lng-production-natural-gas-etfs-focus
  • N7 | 2026-03-23 | www.nasdaq.com | Natural Gas ETFs to Watch as Energy Crisis Deepens Amid Iran War | https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/natural-gas-etfs-watch-energy-crisis-deepens-amid-iran-war
  • N8 | 2026-03-21 | www.nasdaq.com | 3 Natural Gas Names to Watch as a Global Supply Shock Builds | https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/3-natural-gas-names-watch-global-supply-shock-builds
Important legal disclaimer

This material is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment, financial, legal or tax advice, or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security. The Valye AI Score is a model-based estimate derived from public information and is subject to change without notice. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the accuracy, completeness or fairness of the information herein. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investors should conduct their own research and consult a qualified financial adviser before making any investment decisions.

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